Putin and Beijing, Mubarak is Waving at
You!
By He Qinglian on March 20, 2012
I made a comparison between this two
strong men in power of different countries because a strong
parallel could easily be drawn between the way Vladimir Putin won the
Russian presidential election and the way Hosni Mubarak became
elected.
Vladimir Putin became president-elect amid a wave of oppositions, and his joy was shared by Beijing and the major mouthpieces of China. Apart from the desire to see that a power politics could carry on, Beijing and the Chinese state media saw in Putin's victory a change in the course of the world development that would be much in their favor and they predicted that, “Since the end of the Cold War, Russia still remains on a par with the U.S. in terms of military power. As the world's current situation changes, Putin, the president of Russia, will influence to a certain extent on the global landscape in the next 12 years—whether it is Asia, the Middle East, or the South China Sea regions.”
However, both Putin and Beijing had
better not to be happy about the election result so soon—the events of the Russian general election in 2012 reminded me of the
landslide victory of Hosni Mubarak, the Middle East strong man back
then. There are many similarities between the two, and the opposition
Hosni Mubarak faced at that time was much smaller than what Vladimir Putin
faces today.
Below are some facts supporting my
judgment:
One, in
the Egyptian election in 2005 and the Russian election in 2012,
Mubarak and Putin had an overwhelming victory respectively.
On the night of September 9, 2005, the
Presidential Election Commission officially announced that the ruling
National Democratic Party candidate, incumbent president Mohammed
Hosni Mubarak, won a landslide victory in Eygpt's first-ever
multi-candidate presidential election held on September 7 and was
elected president for the fifth consecutive time. According to the
statistics, Hosni Mubarak won in this election 88.57% of the vote,
and secured an overwhelming victory.
And in the Russian election held on
March 4, 2012, Vladimir Putin too won with an absolute advantage. On
that day, the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation
announced that, even though there were several other candidates,
Vladimir Putin won the election hands down and became president-elect of the
Russian Federation. According to the released statistical results of
the vote, presidential candidate, current prime minister Vladimir
Putin got 63.6% of the vote; Russian Communist Party candidate
Gennady Zyuganov came in second with 17.18% of the vote; the
remaining three candidates Mikhail Prokhorov, Vladimir Zhirinovsky
and Sergey Mironov got 7.98%, 6.22% and 3.85% of the vote
respectively.
Two, in both elections, Mubarak and
Putin enjoyed a political edge over their opponents
Before 2005, the Egyptian presidential
election was a “one-man game” that Mubarak played. First, the
Egyptian parliament nominated and approved a sole candidate, and then
the whole country voted to elect their president. Under U.S.
pressure, Egypt enacted in 2005 the “Egyptian presidential election
law”. In accordance with that law, the Presidential Election
Commission was to affirm on August 11 ten presidential candidates from the
fifty-odd persons nominated by political parties or self-recommended
to run in the election. Apart from the ruling National Democratic
Party nominated President Hosni Mubarak, there were only two other
candidates who considerably had some influence: Numan Gumaa of the
long existed New Wafd Party, and Ayman Nour of the Tomorrow Party,
which established only in October 2004. All the rest of the candidates did
not have public support and prestige.
Mubarak's political opponents mainly
concentrated among the young intellectuals in Cairo, whereas
the country's medium and small towns and rural areas were under
Mubarak and his National Democratic Party's firm control.
Russia's political oppositions existed
all along, but their strength was no match of Vladimir Putin. And even the
Russian Communist Party had never had a support rate that exceeded
20%, despite its use of the people's nostalgic sentiments. Based on
the analysis on the vote, those in favor of Vladimir Putin were
mainly from the remote, backward regions, as had been the case for
the supporters of Hosni Mubarak. In Moscow however, Putin got only
47.22% of the vote. And even in Vladimir Putin's hometown, the city of St. Petersburg, there were a good few of those who opposed him.
Judging from the cultural qualities and
openness of the supporters, it is evident that those prefer
authoritarian ruler usually live in backward regions and rural areas,
where the people are relatively less educated and where information
is relatively closed.
Three, Anti-West sentiments played an
important role in both elections
Both Putin and Mubarak had resorted to
the propaganda means to stigmatize the opposition which appealed for
support with freedom and democracy. They claimed that the opposition
was backed by Western forces.
In the Egyptian presidential election
in 2005, none of the nine candidates had enough advantage to compete
with Hosni Mubarak. Among them, Ayman Nour graduated from the
Faculty of Law and gained reputation through his efforts in running a
newspaper to promote freedom of expression and democratic values, and
was twice elected as member of the Parliament in 1995 and 2000.
Established in 2004, the Tomorrow Party influenced chiefly a few young intellectuals in
Cairo. Before the election, Mubarak's camp labeled Nour as “an
intermediary to facilitate the Western forces' penetration”. In the
eyes of those in Mubarak's camp, all nine candidates contesting
alongside Hosni Mubarak could hardly pose any threat to Hosni
Mubarak, who had extensive experience in governance. Even the Chinese
official media said that, in comparison with Hosni Mubarak, all nine
candidates had no hope of victory at all.
The restoration of Russia's status as a
great power has always been what Vladimir Putin uses to gain support.
All along those support Vladimir Putin claim that some of the
opposition is funded by the West. Even after Vladimir Putin has won
the election, the “first deputy director of the Russian
Strategic Development Simulation Center” reportedly carried on saying similar
remarks to Oriental Outlook, a Xinhua subsidiary, “Putin
will face many external troubles. I saw in opponents’ campaigns no
creativity, even though it is said that some of them received funds
from the West.” Putin's supporters even said that, “for other
candidates, this election looked more like a political entertainment
activity.” “The more activities the opposition organizes, the
grimmer their future will be.” Putin's victory was even described
as “Russia's triumph over the West”.
The Chinese media spared no ink and
efforts in praising the personal charisma of Vladimir Putin and his
accomplishments of rescuing Russia from the domestic political chaos
of the Yeltsin era. But the praise Hosni Mubarak had at a point
received more praise from the Egyptian people than Vladimir Putin
does today. The Egyptian eulogized Hosni Mubarak for a range of
things: his great accomplishments in the “October War”, his
composed manner, his spirit of sacrifice, and his being a
knowledgeable person were just several examples. Hosni Mubarak has a
colorful, magnificent, and legendary life, one that Vladimir Putin, a
mere former KGB major, could in no way be comparable.
Despite all the popularity Hosni
Mubarak enjoyed, people's heart changes like tides. Hosni Mubarak was
driven off the stage of politics by the Egyptian people for his
obsession with power and was made to stand trial inside a cage
alongside his wife and his son. Mubarak's wife Suzanne Mubarak, once
in the eyes of Egyptian women the guardian of the rights of women in
the Arab world, and the best of women, is now facing accusations and
humiliations after her husband has been ousted.
When Beijing and Vladimir Putin applaud
and cheer for his victory in the presidential election, I'd suggest
them to have a look at the stage the erstwhile hero Hosni Mubarak is
in now. Think carefully about it, Hosni Mubarak stayed in his
country's top post for but a few more years. Had he announced to
step down before his term expired or arranged a succession in
advance, would he be in this situation of shame and humiliation,
being made to stand trial inside a cage?
